But, you’re right, the six month figure is not that descriptive. So, let’s break it down and look at the numbers more closely, based on the 2004 report by the Energy Information Administration.

First, the mean estimate of “technically recoverable” reserves is about 10 billion barrels. This figure is a little misleading, because no oil well ever delivers its entire reserve. Typically, an oil well’s production peaks a few years after development, then tapers off gradually until it’s no longer profitable to continue extraction.

If you look at the results of the study, you’ll see that the EIA estimates production will begin in 2013, peak in 2024 at 876,000 barrels per day, then decline at an estimated 10% per year thereafter. So, even at it’s peak, ANWR will only supply a few percent of the nations oil needs, based on current consumption (sure to be more in 2024). To say that ANWR will “replace over 30 years of Saudi oil imports” is totally inaccurate.

These estimates contradict the Bush administrations claims that developing ANWR will somehow help to wean us off imported oil. It is, in fact, yet another example of the cynical and completely disingenuous way in which this administration presents its agenda to the American people.

But for me, the more important question is a philosophical and ideological one. The question is, should we, at this point in history, undertake to develop the last pristine wilderness on the arctic coastal plain, while at the same time placing absolutely no emphasis on conservation, finding alternatives to fossil fuels, and scoffing at global warming?

For me, the answer is an unequivocal no.

Oh, and the caribou are *thriving* at Prudhoe Bay — the herd is the largest since we began tracking! I’ve got some links on my site:

http://damnablog.com/?p=19